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Prediction for CME (2025-01-01T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-01T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36174/-1
CME Note: Faint CME with a fuzzy front (multiple fronts) to the SW. A possible considered source could be a significant eruption near AR 3939 (S17W15) starting around 2025-01-01T00:30Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. An alternative source is the movement of field lines close to/on the SW limb seen in SUVI 195 after 2025-01-01T01:30Z, possibly from Active Region 3932 (S15W77).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-03T23:33Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-03T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2025 Jan 02 1236 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50102
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jan 2025, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jan 2025  10CM FLUX: 208 / AP: 038 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2025  10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2025  10CM FLUX: 190 / AP: 024

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 3 M-class flares recorded. SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936) was responsible for most of the flaring activity, including the 3 M-class flares. The largest flare was an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3168) peaking on January 01 at 18:17 UTC. This region has now rotated over the west limb but may still contribute to the flaring activity over the next day. A new region emerged and was numbered in the south east, SIDC Sunspot Group 358 (NOAA Active Region 3945). Additionally, a new area of fast flux emergence can also be seen in the south-western quadrant, but has yet to be numbered. SIDC Sunspot Group 357 (NOAA Active Region 3944) showed some further growth while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next
24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections: The CME associated to the filament eruption reported yesterday, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data directed to the south-west from 02:20 UTC January 01, is expected to have a glancing blow at Earth from late on January 03. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Lead Time: 36.55 hour(s)
Difference: 1.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2025-01-02T11:00Z

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